Coupled Genetic Algorithm-Neural Network Model for Forecasting Monsoon Floods in Kosi River at Baltara (India)

Coupled  Genetic Algorithm-Neural Network Model for Forecasting Monsoon Floods in Kosi River at Baltara (India)

Mani Kumar¹, Rajeev R Sahay²,

¹Professor , B. I. T. Patna

²PhD Scholar, B. I. T. Patna

ABSTRACT A coupled model, GANN is developed embedding genetic algorithm (GA) and artificial neural network (ANN) for forecasting 1-day-ahead floods in the Kosi River in India for the monsoon season (June to October). The Kosi carries large flows during monsoon, making the entire North Bihar State of India unsafe for habitation or cultivation. When compared, GANN models are found simulating river flows better than autoregression models (ARs) developed for comparison purpose. The best performing GANN model, with four previous days’ flow-rates as inputs, predicts monsoon flows in the Kosi with the highest accuracy of 99.2%, the minimum root mean square errors of 83.1 m³/s and the maximum coefficient of correlation of 0.99.

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